Monday, July 04, 2011

Bloomberg Analysts Warns U.K. Retail Demergers Should Await Consumer Return

First-quarter sales at Costa Coffee surged 23 percent, Whitbread said last week, while sales at its budget hotel chain Premier Inn rose 8.1 percent. The company plans to double the size of Costa Coffee to 3,500 stores worldwide over the next five years.

“Nothing is likely in the near term,” Ellis said June 23. “It isn’t the easiest market environment to sell into at the minute, with ongoing consumer pressures. They would be better to hold off. It is now at the stage where a lot of investment in overseas markets is starting to bear fruit.”

The planned demerger of Punch Taverns Plc (PUB) this year to separate its leased pub division from Spirit, the faster-growing managed pub estate that includes Chef & Brewer, is unlikely to create shareholder value as weak consumer spending hurts leased outlets, say analysts.

“My valuation is 70 pence for Spirit and five pence for the Punch part of it,” Paul Hickman, an analyst at Peel Hunt, said in a phone interview on June 23. “It is fairly valued at the moment. The demerger is the delayed result of a company hitting the recession with too many pubs and too much debt. While trading is quite difficult, what they are doing is appropriate.”

Punch climbed 1.9 percent to close at 71.35 pence a share in London trading on June 24.

Punch Taverns is making “good progress” with its demerger the company said on June 8. The demerger needs the approval of bondholders.

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